As the ballots are tallied, the resounding victor in yesterday’s elections emerges – Geert Wilders’ right wing PVV stands triumphantly, dominating the polls, particularly in Groningen and Drenthe. The results also shed light on other notable shifts and potential alliances among various parties.
Wilders, a colorful fixture in the Dutch parliament for 25 years, has led the PVV to the forefront, significantly impacting his former party, the VVD. Demonstrating a staggering increase in voter support, the PVV managed to sway nearly 13% more voters in Groningen and Drenthe than in previous elections. This surge reflects voter dissatisfaction with the current government, rising concerns over immigration, and Wilders’ charismatic leadership.
The PVV’s gains have been particularly impressive in the province of Groningen, where it has become the largest party, securing 42% of the votes in Pekela. This marks a substantial increase from 2021, when the PVV held only 16% of the vote in the municipality.
While these shifts are significant locally, when compared to the national average, Wilders’ ascendancy isn’t strikingly pronounced. Despite becoming the national frontrunner with an expected 37 seats, his increased voter appeal this year – 12.7% more than in 2021 – remains consistent across the country.
Here are the key takeaways from the election results:
- PVV Reigns Supreme: Wilders’ PVV commands dominance in most Groningen and Drenthe municipalities, experiencing a substantial surge in votes compared to 2021, with a striking 42% support in Pekela. The party is poised to claim 37 seats nationally.
- NSC Remains Steady: Pieter Omtzigt’s New Social Contract continues as a stable force in the north, securing an average of 15.2% of votes, showing strength in Twente and the Achterhoek. Nationally, NSC secures 13% of votes.
- GL-PvdA Shows Strength: GroenLinks-PvdA, the second-largest party in the Netherlands, performs well in the north, particularly in Groningen, garnering 30% of the votes. Nationally, they secured nearly 16% of the votes.
- Baudet’s Decline: Forum for Democracy experiences a significant dip in votes across Groningen and Drenthe, hovering at an average of 2.2%, mirroring the national trend. Despite a physical altercation at a party meeting in Groningen, the north seems unsympathetic.
- BBB Surpasses Expectations: The Farmer Citizen Movement exceeds expectations in the northern provinces, with Caroline van der Plas securing 5% of the national vote. In Drenthe and Groningen, the party secured 8.8% and 6% of votes, respectively.
- Rutte IV Suffers Losses: The VVD, D66, CDA, and ChristenUnie all experience losses, especially VVD and D66. D66, once the largest party in Groningen, now finds itself barely surpassing the BBB. The VVD faces a similar scenario in Drenthe, with GroenLinks-PvdA taking the lead.
The election results pose a challenge for coalition formation. The PVV’s strong showing makes it difficult to exclude the party from any potential alliances. However, many parties are hesitant to cooperate with the PVV due to its far-right ideology.
The most likely scenario is a partnership between the PVV, the VVD, and the NSC. This would give the coalition a clear majority in the House of Representatives. However, such a coalition would be controversial and could lead to instability.
