Two economists have been crunching the numbers
University of Groningen economists Fabian ten Kate and Elmer Sterken have released their predictions for the Dutch Olympic Team; saying that the team will experience their most successful Games ever in Tokyo. According to Ten Kate and Sterken, the team is likely to win twelve gold (the same as in Sydney in 2000), eleven silver and eleven bronze medals. This would put the Netherlands in sixth place in the country rankings, and fulfil the top-10 target set by the national sports body. As reported by the GIC.
Separately, Ten Kate and Sterken predict that the winner of the medal-ranking will be the USA, followed by China and Japan.
Ten Kate and Sterken have used an econometric model, and have based their predictions on the average success of Dutch athletes during the world championships held in recent years in all 339 events. They have also included a possible home advantage for athletes.
According to Ten Kate and Sterken’s predictions, the United States, China and the home country of Japan will lead the medal standings. The top 10 is also likely to include Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany; France, Italy, and South Korea.
The University of Groningen has been publishing medal predictions since the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Games. “For the previous Summer Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016, we estimated that the Netherlands would win 8 gold, 9 silver and 7 bronze medals, with a twelfth place in the final standings as a result. The Dutch team won fewer medals in Rio overall (8-7-4), but finished one place higher than predicted, bringing the top 10 position targeted by NOC*NSF into the picture.”
“Compared to our predictions, the British team outperformed with second position in the standings and the Chinese (third) and Russian team (fourth) less well. The Russian team had to deal with a forced stay at home [due to a massive state-sponsored doping scandal] of a number of athletes, which led to a lower number of medals.”
There are also several Groninger athletes in Tokyo, including swimmer Ranomi Kromowidjojo and judoka Henk Grol, as well as decorated cyclist Bauke Mollema.
The Tokyo Olympics will be held from July 23 to August 8.