The Central Planning Bureau has come up with several projections
The economy of The Netherlands is likely to enter recession as a result of the Coronavirus epidemic, says the Central Planning Bureau, the national bureau of economic statistics of The Netherlands. The CPB reports that the economy will shrink at best by 1.2 percent this year. However, a ‘worst case’scenario has also been worked out, based on a shrinkage of 7.7 percent.
The extent of the economic impact will depend on contact restrictions and the duration of social distancing measures. In three of those scenarios, economic growth is forecast for next year. The outbreak has negative consequences for unemployment in all scenarios, GIC.nl reports
The CPB makes no predictions about which scenario they expect to become reality. Unemployment in The Netherlands currently stands at 2.9 percent (274,000 unemployed).
Scenario 1
Measures last three months
Economic contraction in 2020: 1.2 percent
Economic growth in 2021: 3.5 percent
Unemployment in 2021: 4.5 percent
Scenario 2
Measures last six months
Economic contraction in 2020: 5 percent
Economic growth in 2021: 3.8 percent
Unemployment in 2021: 5.3 percent
Scenario 3
Measures last six months, with additional problems in the global economy
Economic contraction in 2020: 7.7 percent
Economic growth in 2021: 2 percent
Unemployment in 2021: 8.4 percent
Scenario 4
Measures last twelve months
Economic contraction in 2020: 7.3 percent
Economic contraction in 2021: 2.7 percent
Unemployment in 2021: 9.4 percent
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