The Dutch national statistics agency, CBS, released its second calculation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024, revealing a contraction of 0.5% compared to Q4 2023. This revision, published 85 days after the quarter’s end, is primarily due to a downward adjustment of exports, which is linked to the decline in the manufacturing industry.
While the economic picture remains unchanged, with the decrease in GDP mainly attributable to the export of goods, there’s a cause for concern in another sector. House prices have been on a steady rise since June 2023, reaching yet another record high in May 2024. According to CBS and the land registry Kadaster, May saw a staggering 8.9% increase compared to May 2023, with a further 1.1% rise month-on-month. This surpasses even the previous peak set in July 2022.
The housing market further heated up with a 16.5% year-on-year increase in property transactions in May, reaching 17,591. The first five months of 2024 have also seen a significant rise in home sales, with nearly 78,000 changing hands, a 14% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The average price for an existing home now sits at €445,430. Estate agents organisation NVM is expected to release its latest analysis of the housing market on July 4th, providing further insight into this potentially concerning trend.
Despite the economic contraction, the job market seems to be holding steady. The revised figures show a growth of 39,000 jobs in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023. This continues the upward trend, with 122,000 more jobs reported in Q1 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
While the revised figures offer a more accurate picture of Dutch economic activity in Q1 2024, the contrasting trends in the job market and housing market raise questions about the overall economic health of the Netherlands.
